A fearful new
world, imperiled by Russia’s subterfuge
By Anne Applebaum,
Applebaum writes a biweekly foreign
affairs column and contributes to the Post Partisan blog.
In the
Western imagination, the words “war”
and “invasion” carry clear connotations. From books, movies and
television, we know that such events involve tanks, airplanes and artillery,
as well as soldiers in uniform, advanced weaponry, sophisticated communications.
They look like the invasion of Iraq or, to go back in time, D-Day.
So far, the Russian invasion of eastern Ukraine
looks nothing like these battles. This war involves not soldiers but local thugs and volunteers, some
linked to the ex-president, Viktor Yanukovych , some from criminal gangs and some who mistakenly think they
are fighting for some form of benign local autonomy.
They are
being led not by officers in uniform but by men from Russian
military intelligence and special forces, some wearing
camouflage without insignia, some communicating with “activists” by telephone.
They are supplied with Russian logistics and a few
Russian automatic weapons, but for the most part not tanks or
planes. There is no “shock and awe”
bombing campaign, just
systematic, organized attacks on police stations, city councils, airports.
Unlike the
planners of D-Day or Operation Iraqi Freedom, the Russians organizing the
invasion of Ukraine don’t need an immediate victory.
They have flexible goals, and they are prepared to adjust their strategy depending on how much resistance they
encounter. In the long term, Russia clearly hopes to annex
eastern and southern Ukraine; maps to that effect have begun to
circulate.
But in the
meantime, the Kremlin may settle for disrupting Ukraine’s
presidential elections, scheduled for May 25, or for
destabilizing Ukraine’s shaky provisional government, perhaps forcing an economic crash. The Russians may hope to
provoke a civil war, or something that appears to be a civil war, which would
then require a Russian “peacekeeping mission.”
Many
of these tactics are familiar, though we haven’t seen them for a long time. In 1945, Soviet
secret policemen, given the
task of transforming disparate Eastern European nations into communist puppet
states, also began by organizing local thugs and volunteers — criminals and
war-damaged sociopaths as well as people who mistakenly believed they were
fighting for a form of benign socialism — into paramilitary and secret police
forces, exactly like the ones operating in eastern Ukraine. Then as now, they
led from the shadows. Then as now, they adjusted their strategy depending on
how much resistance they encountered and how much support they received.
But the 21st
century is not the 20th century. When Polish communists, backed by Soviet
communists, falsified
the results of a national referendum in 1946, there weren’t many international
observers around to complain. In the past few days, by contrast, the Internet
has lit up with photographs of “pro-Russian activists” carrying Russian-made RPGs, as well as audio
clips of Russians barking orders. The effect of these revelations, however, has been
to encourage the Russians to lie more brazenly and aggressively. The Russian foreign minister continues to insist that “Moscow is not interested in destabilizing
Ukraine,” and Russian
President Vladimir Putin has called on the United
Nations to condemn Ukraine’s weak and confused attempts to defend itself.
Russian television — watched by many in eastern Ukraine — continues to denounce
nonexistent violence coming from “fascist Kiev” and is even showing politicized
weather reports: Dark clouds are gathering over Donetsk while there is sun in
Crimea. These language games and
disinformation campaigns are now far more sophisticated than anything
the Soviet Union ever produced.
This combination — old-fashioned Sovietization plus slick
modern media — is genuinely new, so much so that it’s fair to
say we are witnessing a new kind of war, and a new
kind of invasion. Thirteen years ago, in the wake of 9/11, the
United States suddenly had to readjust its thinking to asymmetric warfare, the
kinds of battles that tiny groups of terrorists can fight against superior
military powers. Later, we relearned the tactics of counterinsurgency in Iraq.
But now
Europe, the United States and above all the Ukrainians need to learn
to cope with masked warfare — the Russian term is maskirovka — which is designed to confuse not just
opponents but also the opponents’ potential allies. As I’ve written, the West
urgently needs to rethink its military, energy and financial strategies toward Russia. But more specific new
policies will also be needed to fight the masked invasions that may follow in
Moldova or, in time, the Baltic States if this one succeeds.
Americans
and Europeans should begin to rethink the funding and governance of our
international broadcasters in order to counter the new war of words. We should also begin to reinforce the local police forces
of the states that border the new Russian empire; NATO’s F-16s
cannot fight thugs who are storming the town hall. This isn’t just about
spending money: We need more special forces, more
“human” intelligence, not just more ships and planes. Above all,
we need to be prepared, in advance, for what may come. It’s a new
world we are now entering, and we need new tools to cope with it.
Read more
from Anne
Applebaum’s archive, follow her on Twitter or subscribe to her updates on Facebook.
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